Antimicrobial Resistance: 300 Million People May Die Prematurely and the World’s GDP May Shrink by 210 Trillion USD by 2050

In December 2014, the UK review team commissioned by the UK Prime Minister, has published its paper on the impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on the world’s economy and health effects of antimicrobial resistance.

Currently, antimicrobial-resistant infections claim at least 700,000 lives each year worldwide. The review estimates that, by 2050, death toll attributed to antimicrobial-resistant infections may reach 10 million a year if antimicrobial drug resistance is not tackled. For comparison: currently cancer-related deaths account for 8.2 million a year.

Deaths attributed to AMR every year compared to other major causes of death

The studies referred to in the review estimate that 300 million people are expected to die prematurely because of drug resistance over the next 35 years and the world’s GDP will be 2 to 3.5% lower than it otherwise would be in 2050. This means that between now and 2050 the world can expect to lose between 60 and 100 trillion USD worth of economic output.

In the nearer term the world’s GDP is expected to be 0.5% smaller by 2020 and 1.4% smaller by 2030 with more than 100 million people having died prematurely.

AMR’s impact on World GDP in trillions of USD

The health effects of AMR is described by the reviewers as a return to the dark age of medicine.

Modern health systems and treatments that rely heavily on antibiotics could be severely undermined. Many high-volume medical interventions, such as caesarean sections, hip operations and organ transplant have become entirely routine in many parts of the world but are dependent upon the availability of effective antibiotics. Modern cancer treatments often suppress patients’ immune systems, making them more susceptible to infections. In a world where antibiotics do not work surgery would become far more dangerous and chemotherapy would become a much riskier proposition.

It is estimated that caesarean sections contribute about 2% to world GDP. Joint replacements add about 0.65%, the vastly improved cancer drugs that have been created since the early 1970s add more than 0.75% and organ transplants add about 0.1%. In aggregate they contribute almost 4% to the world’s GDP, worth at least 120 trillion USD between now and 2050.

While this total would not be completely lost, when this is combined with the other effects of AMR it shows that the world’s economy could lose more than 7% of its GDP by 2050, or a total of 210 trillion USD over the next 35 years.

It may be obvious to expect that the death toll due to AMR in Asian continent, being the Earth’s largest and most populous, will be the highest. However, in terms of mortality rate, Asia will be only second to Africa.

Deaths attributable to AMR every year by 2050

Global Risks 2015 Report: Rapid and Massive Spread of Infectious Diseases

The World Economic Forum has recently published its Global Risks 2015 Report and this is how the global risks landscape looks like in 2015 according to it:

A social global risk – Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases – was ranked the second highest of all risks in terms of impact.

The risk is defined as: “Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance due to resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments), leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption”

Although this risk of rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases demonstrated the highest rate of growth among the societal risks in the past 10 years – 20.2% – it’s the first time since 2007 that it’s got in the top 5 risks.

Noticeable was the growth of the risk in the past year alone, both in terms of likelihood and in terms of impact:

This appears to be another proof for what was said by one official from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): “For a long time, there have been newspaper stories and covers of magazines that talked about ‘The end of antibiotics, question mark.’ Well, now I would say you can change the title to ‘The end of antibiotics, period.’”